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20 Forcasts for 2014-2030 (Trends and Breakthoughs) (Forecast #18)
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장바울
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2014-06-04 15:41:54, 조회 : 2,064 |
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Forecast #18
“Peak Water” may become a bigger problem than peak oil
As water tables around the world become depleted, and as growing populations demand more water for personal as well as agricultural use, supplies of sustainably managed water will continue to fall.
The consequences could be dire for human health, as water-related diseases proliferate.
Get detail on this and more than 60 other top forecasts in the World Future Society’s annual OUTLOOK Report. It’s yours free with an introductory membership.
Shell was one of the first companies to adopt futures thinking, incorporating it into its planning in the 1970s. Futurist Pierre Wack got Shell to see that oil production was not just about economics and technology, but also about politics. Futurist scenarios showed the possible outcomes and impact of interruptions in oil supplies from the Mideast. Thus, Shell was ready for the severe oil crisis of 1973, when OPEC countries cut off oil exports during the Yom Kippur war.
Then in the early 1990s, scenarios written by Shell futurists foresaw the likelihood of a rapid and dramatic decline in the price of oil. This was the result of the discoveries of new fields outside of the OPEC sphere of influence, in combination with energy conservation. Positioning itself accordingly, Shell then rose from fourteenth to second place among the oil multinationals during the mid-1990s as prices fell and other heavily over-invested companies lost billions.
How Foresight Prevented Civil War
Futurist techniques helped South Africa emerge
from World Future Society
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