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New Model Predicts Pace of Design Innovation
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장바울
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2011-06-11 14:26:56, 조회 : 2,409 |
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New Model Predicts Pace of Design Innovation
A new mathematical model for predicting how quickly given technologies will improve could enable policy makers and venture capitalists to pick tech winners from losers a lot more easily. The model measures a design’s cost and complexity to forecast how easily it might be upgraded, or innovated compared with other designs.
“It gives you a way to think about how the structure of the technology affects the rate of improvement,” says Jessika Trancik, assistant professor of engineering systems at MIT, one of the authors of a recent paper published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The researchers found that, the more complex a technology, the more time, effort, and money will go into improving it and the slower it will get better.
How might the model be used? Pretend for a moment that you’re a venture capitalist and you have to pick between two companies that make solar cells. Each company is marketing its own patented design; one converts more of the sun’s energy into electricity, but the other is easier to build. The model can tell you which of one of the two to invest in on the basis of whether the benefits of one (efficiency) are justified by the costs (complexity). The price of material and other factors may also be entered in to refine the calculation and provide a better prediction.
The researchers hope the model will also help designers improve their products and manufacturing processes.
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